Michael Gorman on 25 Jan 2004 20:50:57 -0000


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Re: [eia] Zurich wrapup


At 02:47 PM 1/25/2004 -0600, you wrote:
Thus spake Michael Gorman:
> At 01:40 PM 1/25/2004 -0600, you wrote:
> >Thus spake "Kyle H":
> > >     The French side is retreated to Strassbourg.  There are no pursuit
> > > casualties during the retreat, and Soult hears a bullet go whizzing by hi
> s
> > > ear.
> >
> >This makes me wonder whether we're running behind the expected rate of
> >leader casualties. There's a 1/36 chance that a leader will be killed
> >each time he fights. Surely we've had 36 instances of leaders going into
> >battle by this point?
>
> We've had one injury so far. Castanos was hit at St. Petersburg and needed
> 5 months to recover.

Hold on. You just reminded me that fatalities happen only on a further roll
of 6. So the probability of leader death is 1/216, not 1/36 as I'd stated.
(1/36 is the probability of leader casualties as a whole.) That makes more
sense to me, as the range of Napoleonic-era cannon and muskets combined
with the modern practice of leading from the rear made the injury of
commanding generals unlikely.

Were *any* of the generals represented in the game actually killed in
battle?
Nelson was, but I'm not sure if any others were off the top of my head.

Mike


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